Tuesday, March 4, 2008

New Orleans Hornets Breakdown: Paul Is The Key

New Orleans latest victory may only have come against the lowly Knicks, but in the cannibalistic Western Conference, every road win is crucial.

In their 100-88 triumph, the Hornets displayed a number of traits characteristic of playoff teams, and a number of critical flaws as well. Since the positives outweigh the negatives, the Hornets are definitely a quality team. But how far can they go?

Let's look at Chris Paul and the rest of his nest to find out what's abuzz.

Good Paul:

Paul (11-17 FG, 2-3 3FG, 3-4 FT, 8 AST, 2 TO, 27 PTS) was terrific offensively against the Knicks, doing whatever he wanted with the ball in his hand. His pet move was to drive off a screen and use a nifty right handed pull-up dribble to unleash an array of floating layups and bankers.

Paul’s decision making off of screen/rolls was impeccable with a number of alley-oops to Tyson Chandler, mid range jumpers for David West, pull up J’s for Paul himself, or kick-out passes to open shooters resulting from his ability to create open looks for teammates.

Of Paul’s 17 shots, only a single one was forced.

Paul hit two spot-up three-balls after his man was forced to double team West in the post. Paul’s only miss from behind the line came to beat to the third quarter buzzer.

Paul looked to push the ball every time in early offense but was remarkably calm and patient allowing his team to run offensive sets.

Of Paul’s three steals, one was a simple one coming off a tipped Eddy Curry crosscourt pass, one was a result of an impressive deflection of a Nate Robinson pass, and a third was a spectacular dropping down from the weak-side to intercept a pass intended for David Lee.

I observed Paul setting two screens and they were good ones.

Paul grabbed five rebounds including two clutch ones in the final two minutes.

Paul’s total of eight assists is misleading—his teammates missed a number of open jumpers which would have raised his total.

Bad Paul:

Paul’s screen defense was embarrassing to watch. Not only would he get strung up on screens, but he’d give up on plays altogether after getting picked off. His pathetic screen defense allowed Nate Robinson to curl and shoot or stop and pop for 7-11 shooting and 17 points.

During a brief stretch in the second quarter, Paul made a bad decision to pass the ball to a well-defended David West in the post which nearly resulted in a turnover. After the Hornets inbounded the ball, Paul drove and made a terrible pass to a stationary David West which sailed out of bounds. Paul then failed to pick up Nate Robinson on defense and watched Nate take it coast-to-coast for a layup.

The key to the sequence is that Paul lost focus and cost his team a possession on offense and two points on defense. Don’t think that even such momentary daydreams will go unpunished come playoff time.

Paul’s entry passes are subpar with examples being the aforementioned near-turnover to West and a sloppy entry pass to Tyson Chandler turning into a steal for David Lee.

Even the slow as traffic Mardy Collins was able to blow by Paul and get good looks at the hoop.

Good Hornets:

David West was an efficient second option. He showed a soft touch on his 17-footers (4-8), was an effective passer out of double teams (2 AST), was able to block shots (4 BLK) and was able to shut down Malik Rose (2-7 FG) and David Lee (2-9 FG).

Tyson Chandler was a grizzly bear on the backboards, fighting his way to 18 rebounds, the majority of them in heavy traffic.

Chandler also set bruising screens, showed on screen/rolls, cut aggressively, converted garbage points, and now has a simple effective right hook which he used to exploit Eddy Curry.

Mo Peterson worked hard on defense and was able to knock down three corner threes because of Chris Paul’s penetration.

Mike James (3-5 FG, 3 REB, 0 AST, 0 TO, 7 PTS) used his quick first step to free himself for open looks.

Ryan Bowen followed a Mardy Collins dribble to poke the ball away from behind leading to a steal and Chris Paul slam.

The Hornets starters were always confident they would get an open shot, never forcing shots, never panicking if the Knick defenders took an initial set away. As a result, the Hornets stayed patient and got any open look they wanted.

If the Hornets don’t have many good on-ball perimeter defenders, their back line is tough as nails, and the team made a number of timely rotations.

Bad Hornets:

By my count, West was only 2-7 on low post moves, with two assists, and two trips to the free throw line. Since West only made one of the resulting four free-throws, one of the trips really counts as a turnover.

Chandler and West were dominated by Eddy Curry (8-11 FG, 3-6 FT, 8 REB, 19 PTS) under the basket. Chandler repeatedly was beaten down the court by Curry allowing EC to seal and gain prime post position against Chandler. Chandler also was beaten along the baseline by a Malik Rose iso (Malik Rose!), resulting in a reverse layup plus a foul.

Peja Stojakovic was dreadful from the perimeter (3-13 FG, 3-10 3FG, 9 PTS) and didn’t play a lick of defense. If Stojakovic makes more than 50% of his threes, he’s an asset; if he makes 40-50%, he’s a contributor; if me makes less than 40%, he’s a liability.

New Orleans bench is a disaster. Melvin Ely is a totally unacceptable backup. Jannero Pargo and Mike James are shoot first, last, and always point guards who can’t run an offense, defend, or play unselfishly. Rasual Butler (0-4 FG, 0-2 3FG) is a bricklayer, and Ryan Bowen is an 11th man.

The Hornets played with a disappointing lack of energy, a disturbing trend which has resulted in two losses to the Wizards, plus the dogfight against the Knicks.

The Outlook:

Chris Paul is definitely a stud of a point guard who can do whatever he wants with the ball. His slightly upgraded strength, his much improved jumper, and his willingness to pass first are what have elevated him from a very good young point guard, to one of the best point men in the NBA.

His defensive deficiencies are mitigated by the fact that aside from Jason Kidd and Derek Fisher, none of the talented point guards in the West are acceptable defenders.

Still, the effort is a concern. Will Paul continue to fight if he runs into obstacles? And will Paul’s lack of focus cost the Hornets even more losses against the NBA’s cupcakes?

The Hornets lack of experience and their putrid bench prevent them from being a contender this year, but the Hornets can definitely win a playoff series.

All they’ll need is for Stojakovic and Peterson to make the majority of their jumpers, James and Pargo to produce points off the bench, and for the team to avoid stretches of unfocused play.

Anything more will depend on Paul eliminating his mistakes and his teammates all playing up to their capabilities. Not impossible, but unlikely for this current season.

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