Saturday, February 23, 2008

Rockets Breakdown: Lifting Off

Over the last month, the Rockets have blasted off from landlocked mediocrity into a playoff orbit. Since Tracy McGrady is the team’s most dynamic playmaker, lets use Houston’s 112-100 victory over Miami to find out jut how far McGrady can pilot the Rocketship.

McGrady: 8-19 FG, 1-4 3FG, 6-7 FT, 3 REB, 10 AST, 1 TO, 2 STL, 23 PTS

First Half:

The Rocket offense was firing on all cylinders in the opening period with McGrady as the focal point.

McGrady was posted against a fronting Dorell Wright where he caught an over-the-top entry pass, turned, drew a double, and found Luis Scola on the baseline for a layup.

The next two possessions, McGrady would curl off down screens to the left wing where he would catch, fire, and shoot. One possession netted a basket and the other netted a plus-one.

McGrady drove right off a screen and calmly sank a 20-footer.

McGrady missed an alley-oop attempt.

The Rockets tried curling McGrady off a weak-side screen, but when McGrady curled to the basket and drew a double, his pass to a cutting Yao was over his head out-of-bounds.

A simple pass along the perimeter found Alston open for a three-pointer.

McGrady worked with Luis Scola on the left wing, passing to Scola, faking a handoff, cutting hard to the basket, then breaking off and floating out to the baseline. With Dorell Wright thoroughly confused, McGrady was able to catch and sink a 20-footer.

McGrady’s bricked a pull-up three in early offense.

McGrady exploded by Wright along the baseline and when Miami sent help, Yao Ming was all alone under the basket for a layup.

Twice McGrady didn’t have any room to penetrate after using screens so he brought the ball out and made two perfect entry passes leading to Yao baskets.

McGrady curled around a weak-side screen, caught a pass, drove to the edge of the paint and passed it out to Rafer Alston in the corner. Passes along the perimeter were too quick for the scrambling Heat and McGrady found himself reacquainted with the ball for an easy 20-foot jumper.

McGrady tried to drive and dish to Alston in the left corner but because Jason Williams didn’t have to collapse on help, the pass out was a harmless one.

McGrady drove parallel to the basket along the free throw line where he drew a crowd and found Luis Scola for an open 18-footer which was missed.

McGrady hit a wide open three towards the end of the quarter.

McGrady totaled 14 points and 5 assists for the first quarter, prodigious numbers to be sure. With McGrady playing so effectively (combining with Miami’s miserable defense), the Rocket offense exploded for 41 points. The most impressive fact was how those points and assists were totaled.

  • With McGrady curling off screens to unleash automatic jump shots.
  • With McGrady penetrating and looking to dish.
  • With McGrady moving without the ball to free himself for open jump shots
  • With McGrady making snappy decisions with the ball instead of standing around having the game bog down.

McGrady was less effective in the second quarter as he reverted to his habit of catching the ball and waiting a few seconds before deciding what to do with the ball.

Still, McGrady was patient on screen/rolls with Yao, and if nothing opened up, T-Mac was willing to bring the ball out and feed Yao in the post.

He tried to drive and dish down low but Miami collapsed their defense and knocked the ball away.

McGrady opened up for another catch-and-shoot on a down screen but he missed the jumper.

McGrady drove and found Luther Head wide open in the corner but Luther Head missed the open three.

McGrady dunked in a lob.

If McGrady hesitated too much in his decision making, he was willing to move without the ball to get open, made generally good decisions, and was generally unselfish.

Second Half:

In the second half, McGrady’s habit of holding the ball too long became an obvious detriment to Houston’s harmonious offense. The most glaring body of evidence came early in the third quarter when McGrady used a cross-screen to set himself on the left box. After receiving the ball, McGrady waited five second; one, two, three, four, five, before launching an ill-fated step back jumper. Ugh!

Miami had their bigs show aggressively on screen/rolls in the second half, stringing McGrady out. With McGrady’s screen/roll game neutralized, he reverted to attacking in early offense to try and get points. Two such adventures drew fouls on Miami, one resulted in a contested brick, and another resulted in a missed three in transition.

McGrady tried to attack the basket when isolated on Dorell Wright, but his layup attempt was moving away from the basket and was well off.

McGrady missed three standstill jumpers with no rhyme or reason in the Rockets offense.

McGrady tried to drive along the baseline but he got cut off by Miami’s help. His desperate pass to the corner was intercepted.

McGrady did have one impressive layup, a lefty drive with his right hand where McGrady switched hands at the basket to complete the layup. He also made a beautiful bounce pass against a scrambling Heat defense to Carl Landry for a dunk. McGrady had a second impressive assist when he pumped Wright out of his boots, drove, and found Landry cutting again for a dunk.

Most of McGrady’s assists in the second half were extremely lucky. On one play, a Heat player threw the ball right at T-Mac at halfcourt. All he had to was catch it and throw it to Yao who was still under the basket for an easy assist.

It should be noted that I mentioned nothing about McGrady’s defense in either half. That’s because it was consistent throughout the game. McGrady rarely got himself out of position on defense before plays started, but T-Mac was more willing to move his hands than his feet on penetrations. Since McGrady was matched up mainly on Dorell Wright, his deficiencies were rarely taken advantage of.

So what conclusions can be made about McGrady?

  • When he’s able to step into his jumpers, T-Mac is an explosive jump shooter.
  • McGrady is generally unselfish and looks to pass first on his penetrations.
  • McGrady is an excellent passer out of screen/rolls.
  • When Rick Adelman had McGrady zigging before he caught the ball, or zagging after he caught it, the Rockets offense got whatever it wanted.
  • When Miami adjusted to McGrady’s screen/roll game, he lacked the wherewithal or the extra gear to adjust.
  • Though he half-heartedly went through screens, McGrady shied away from contact at all costs.
  • McGrady is a below-average defender who’d get carved up guarding the league’s best wings (thank goodness for Shane Battier!).
  • McGrady forced too many shots when Miami took away his first options.
  • The Rocket offense sputtered when McGrady wasn’t aggressive but it stagnated altogether when he was taken out of the game.
  • With Bonzi Wells no longer in Houston, the Rockets will have to depend on McGrady’s playmaking even more.


What about the rest of the Rockets?

Yao was too soft attacking the baskets and too slow to provide help defense when the Rockets perimeter was breeched. Still, his fadeaway jumpers are indefensible by anyone under seven-feet tall.

Rafer Alston was in control of the offensive throughout, and he hit a good amount of his three-pointers to keep the offense moving. Since he did everything required of him, it’s no surprise the Rockets scored 112 points.

Shane Battier made Dwayne Wade work hard for every shot and chipped in with four assist, five boards, and 12 points.

Carl Landry cut hard and finished strong around the basket.

While the Rockets have precious few individual defenders (McGrady, Yao, Alston, and Scola can’t guard their shadows, and they all start), the ghost of Jeff Van Gundy still resonates throughout the Rockets facilities and their team defense is exceptional.

Can the Rockets make the playoffs? If they all stay healthy, absolutely. Yao’s size, McGrady’s playmaking, and the team’s defense are attributes that few teams can overcome. However, McGrady and Ming’s injury history causes me to think twice about whether or not they’ll make it to the finish line unscathed. An injury to either of them will put the Rockets in the lottery.

Can the Rockets win a playoff series? Probably. Nobody has the size to match up with Yao Ming, and few teams have the defensive discipline or the individual defenders to hang with McGrady.

Still, Yao’s alarming habit of having his hooks blocked by the most minuscule of defenders, the Rockets paucity of good individual defenders, and McGrady’s softness and unwillingness to take the ball to the hoop when it matters most will leave the Rockets underdogs in every series. Which leads to the next question.

Can the Rockets go all the way? Absolutely not. T-Mac lacks the creativity and the will-power to lead Houston over the most elite teams in the West. The Rocketship will run out of fuel in the second round at latest.

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